Thursday, June 3, 2010

NBA Finals Preview: Celtics Vs. Lakers (C's WIN IT IN 6)


I feel like I've been waiting for Game 1 of the NBA Finals to start for about a month now.  It's only been a week since the Eastern Conference Finals ended but it feels like it's been a hell of a lot longer.  The gaps between games and series in the 2010 NBA Playoffs has been out of control.  I think the days have been going by super slow because I can't freakin' wait for the rematch of the 2008 NBA Finals.

Had Garnett never hurt his knee last season, I"m pretty sure we would be looking at a potential three peat by the Celtics right now.  Unfortunately, we had to watch the Lakers hoist the trophy and listen to their fans talk a bunch of shit for an entire year even though they didn't have go to through the defending champs because of an injury.  It seemed like quickly forgot about the ass whooping they received in 2008 when they lost Game 6 by 39 points (131-92).

Now all of those memories are starting to rush back and I can see the fear in their eyes.  Lakers fans know this is not going to be as easy as it was last year and the chances of them losing again are still pretty high based on how nasty the C's have been playing.

I think the best way to break down this series is to take a look at the one on one matchups and figure out who has the advantage.   

Perkins vs. Bynum - Advantage Perkins
Normally I would say this one was a wash but Bynum has been having some serious knee issues for the entire playoffs and he has not been at full strength.  He will probably play sparingly and in all honesty, the Lakers look better when he's not in the game.  Perkins is still a liability with his propensity for fouls and his garbage antics of flipping out after every single call made against him but I think he will tone it down for the Finals.  He knows that if he gets one more technical foul, he will be suspended for a game.  That would definitely suck.

Gasol vs. Garnett - Advantage Garnett
A lot of people would argue with this one since Gasol at this point is a better scorer but he has been doing that against mostly inferior defense for most of the playoffs.  No one can D him up like Garnett as he proved in the 2008 Finals.  Although Garnett is a step slower because of the knee, he can still get up in Gasol's face on shots and will also knock him around down low which is not something Gasol is very good at handling.  He is a soft player and can easily be taken out of the game by a few hard knocks to the ground.  I could see Garnett getting in his head early in Game 1 tonight.  Garnett has also been getting much better on the offensive end over the past few weeks and has been hitting a lot of those outside jumpers that he was missing all season.  This will help pull Gasol away from the basket and open up the lane a little more for Rondo, Pierce and Allen to drive. 

Pierce vs. Artest - Even
Artest's defense should help keep Pierce in check on the offensive end but Artest's offense has been down this season and he still takes some terrible shots which will hurt the Lakers momentum.  Pierce can score on anyone, regardless of their defense but he will have to work hard for those shots.  Luckily Pierce has stepped up his game on the defensive end as well so it's not a pure matchup of Offense vs. Defense.  This is a tough one to call so I am going to say it's an even matchup even though I want to give Pierce the edge.  Pierce struggles against a bigger defender in LeBron James, so I could see him having some trouble getting more than 15-20 points per game in this series.  If Pierce is able to frustrate Artest and get in his head, the advantage can easily shift his way.

Allen vs. Bryant - Advantage Bryant
Kobe is one of the best players in the league and possibly one of the best of all time so it's obvious that he gets the advantage here but it's not as much of a discrepancy as you might think.  Ray Allen played very well against Kobe in the 2008 Finals and kept him in check for the most part.  It's impossible to stop Kobe and you can only hope to contain him.  Ray's activity and constant movement off of picks on the offensive end slowed Kobe down enough where he was a little slower and more fatigued on the offensive end so it helped keep him in check somewhat.  Ray has been hot of late and if he can get going and frustrate Kobe, that could be a huge turn of events.  I am also hearing rumors that Kobe may end up covering Rondo a lot which I think is a really bad idea.  Kobe is taller but he's looking slower these days and I can't see him wanting to waste so much energy on defense chasing around Rondo like a mad man.  Plus, this would put a PG on Allen which sounds like a really bad idea since he could post them up or get more open looks.

Rondo vs. Fisher - Advantage Rondo
As I just mentioned, Kobe could be covering Rondo quite a bit this series but as long as Rondo is aggressive and is playing in 5th gear like he has been for most of the playoffs, it won't matter who is guarding him.  He has looked unstoppable at times and can drop a triple double almost every game.  He will destroy Fisher when he is covering him and he will probably keep Fisher from getting open looks on the offensive end since Rondo will be up in his jock.  Rondo had a few relapses back into the 2008 Rondo when he started deferring to Pierce at the end of games but I have a feeling some of that was due to the fact that he was a little bumped and bruised.  If he keeps his head in the game and is healthy, Rondo is the true X factor of this whole series.

Benches - Advantage Celtics
C's: Davis, Wallace, T. Allen, Daniels, Robinson, Williams
Lakers:  Brown, Farmar, Odom, Vujacic, Walton
Lamar Odom has been playing very well in the 2010 Playoffs and he is the big game changer for the Lakers coming off the bench.  There really isn't anyone that can match up with him on the Celtics bench but if Wallace comes with the energy he has had recently, he should be able to slow down Odom a bit.  Davis is much shorter and slower but he is athletic enough to stay with him and his width should keep Odom from getting to the hoop to easily. 

Also, since Bynum has been hurt and will probably end up getting his minutes cut, Odom will essentially be the 6th starter for the Lakers since he will get some big minutes.  If you take Odom out of the equation, the Celtics bench destroys anyone else the Lakers can put on the floor.  Phil Jackson has kept the rotation tight but if anyone gets injured or is fatigued, they are screwed since they have very few options that good give the C's any issues.  Tony Allen has been playing great, Nate Robinson can go off for 15-20 points at any time as he showed us against the Magic, Daniels is serviceable at the SG and Wallace can provide instant offense with some low post moves and open threes.  Big Baby has been great on both the offensive and defensive ends and has shown tremendous hustle that was sorely lacking from the Celtics for most of the season.  The Lakers can't compete with that.  They are going to need their starters to play 40+ minutes per game which sounds like a disaster in the making for what will most likely be a long series.

That looks like a 4-1-1 matchup advantage in favor of the Celtics.  You can call me biased but I think that is a fairy solid assessment.  Here is how I think the games will go for the entire series in which the C's will win it in 6 games:

Game 1 - Lakers Win
Game 2 - Celtics Win
Game 3 - Celtics Win
Game 4 - Lakers Win
Game 5 - Celtics Win
Game 6 - Celtics Win 2010 NBA Championship

LET'S GO CELTICS!!!  CLAP, CLAP, CLAP-CLAP-CLAP.  LET'S GO CELTICS!!!  CLAP, CLAP, CLAP-CLAP-CLAP...
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